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Advanced Bronze Match Review and Grand Finals Predictions


   Bonesaw   - 12/16/2019
We probably could not have asked for a closer, or more exciting, bronze match than the one we got. All maps went basically as long as they could with both Steel and Swiftwater ending 2-1 and Product ending 3-2. While 1 Korean, 9 Keyboards unfortunately came up short I hope that this largely move-up based team feels good after having had such a successful season in Advanced.

division dysphoria > 1 Korean, 9 Keyboards (2-1)
Combined Logs: https://logs.tf/2429584#76561198019252798

Before I begin talking about the map-by-map breakdown I would like to say a few words about the actions taken by a certain player on 1k9k going into the third map: Steel. This player, largely due to tilt, decided to leave the server and forced 1k9k to find a ringer, Bear Hoovy. While I understand the amount of tilt that can happen in a match, especially a playoff match, I want to state what all players know: that it is never right to leave your team's match in general especially during a playoff game. The decision of this player almost certainly had an impact on their team and could very well have given dysphoria the slight edge they needed to take Steel in the third round and cause his own team's season to come to an unfortunate end.

Moral of the Story: Do not rage quit playoffs matches.

With that being said, I would like to offer a quick shoutout to the substitute players/ringers on 1k9k who played this match: ZoomxZe, Markers, and Bear Hoovy.

Map-by-map Breakdown

Product (2-3)
Logs: https://logs.tf/2429501#76561198019252798

While I thought that this map could very well have been close, I was surprised that 1k9k was able to swing this match into their favor. That being said, with the performances of some of their players it is not completely surprising that they managed to take the W here. Markers for 1k9k in particular played a huge role in controlling Piney for dysphoria by securing 15 Sniper frags (vs. 7 for Piney) as well as the top-frag spot in the match. This performance was backed up by an incredible showing from J_Peg for 1k9k who managed to go 31 and 11 with 350 DPM. Despite the good performances of extrasolar, Cheers, and Piney, the rest of their team struggled to do anything after the first 2 rounds which were won by dysphoria fairly handily. I can attest from playing against 1k9k in our match on Product that their ability to adjust after losing rounds is something that can really challenge a team's ability to secure the W and it seems that, in this match, dysphoria was simply unable to make that necessary adjustment, getting reverse swept to a 3-2 loss on Product. The last things I want to mention are the performances by san antonio 1998 green mustang and Bliztank for 1k9k. As they would do throughout most of the remaining rounds, and the match overall, they seriously outperformed their respective class with mustang getting 100 more DPM than brandon for dysphoria and Bliztank getting 10 more kills (as well as 17 total spy kills!) than cookie for dysphoria.

Swiftwater (2-1)

This was the map which, more than anything, determined how the rest of this match would go. 1k9k had the momentum coming into this map and would likely have won it were it not for a couple silly overextensions by key members of their combo in Bz and san antonio 1998 green mustang especially when pushing 4th in the second round. It was very clear in the first round just how confident 1k9k was feeling with them managing to almost double the kills of dysphoria as well as securing a 5:54 offensive time after having stopped dysphoria from capping 4th. In this round every single gamer on 1k9k performed no-one on dysphoria was able to put in seemingly any work. However, that changed going into round 2 where Piney and Cheers stepped up in a big way with both of them securing the top two positions for frags on their team (as well as in the round overall) for both offense and defense. These solid performances led to a near-reversal of the results from the first round with 1k9k setting a nearly 16-minute time on offense which dysphoria easily beat with an offensive time of around 12 minutes. This set the stage for a climactic third round that both teams were eager to deliver on. This round, much like the two rounds before it, was not particularly close as dysphoria dominated with a performance being led once again by Piney and Cheers. More than anything this was probably won by dysphoria's ability to control Theoretical Spy who has been doing work for his team in the first two rounds but went 8 and 29 in the final round of the match. Perhaps even more importantly than shutting down Theoretical Spy, dysphoria also managed to shut down Bz who tied with Theoretical Spy for bottom fragger on his team. On a map like Swiftwater, a Heavy bottom-fragging does not bode well and it likely contributed to him tilting out of the server going into Steel. This was only further amplified by the inability of 1k9k to even cap 4th with dysphoria shutting them out the exact same way that 1k9k had shut out dysphoria in the very first round.

Steel (2-1)

Going into Steel, therefore, dysphoria certainly held both the momentum as well as the mental advantage of having come back from match-loss-point to take Swiftwater 2-1. If nothing else, it is clear from a player tilting out of the match that 1k9k was not in the best place going into their match despite the best efforts of Bear Hoovy to attempt to reinvigorate his team with epic pep talk ( Caution: Strong Language ). Bear Hoovy, the substitute player for 1k9k also lived up to his words as he proceeded to go almost equal with extrasolar for dysphoria. Unlike Swiftwater, almost every round on Steel was fairly close. In the first round 1k9k set a dominant time of 5:12, stopping dysphoria from capping any point after C despite dysphoria getting SUPER close. In the second round, dysphoria got to set the time and once again we saw another excellent time of 5:16 for capturing A-B-C-E with extrasolar and brandon both finally stepping up to lead their team and just [url=https://clips.twitch.tv/BlazingPoisedRadicchioRaccAttack] barely managing to stop 1k9k from taking this round with a 3-minute push before shutting the out of every point after B until time ran out. With the score now 1-1 on Steel and the match 1-1 overall, both of these team's chances to make Grand Finals now hung in the balance going into the third round on Steel. With that amount of pressure placed on these players as well as almost 2 hours of match behind them, you would normally expect for there to be more mistakes made than usual and the biggest possible mistake was made by 1k9k at the end of this map. Despite setting a 5:14 time, they made a miscalculation with only 1:30 left on the clock and allowed dysphoria to get too much pressure on E before they rotated. Not being able to deal with the pressure, dysphoria won with a time of about 3:50. Clearly, both teams played very solid on offense and set quite low times. In the end, it just came down to dysphoria managing to play better, beating 1k9k's time by over a minute despite them getting badly outfragged with excellent performances by Bear Hoovy, Markers, and Bliztank whose solid gameplay throughout the whole map came up just short in the end.

While I have not done this for other playoff matches I felt like I should for the closest playoff match we have seen so far (asides from g2b vs. dysphoria).

MVPs of the Match:

Markers, J_Peg, san antonio 1998 green mustang for 1k9k.

Piney, extrasolar, Cheers for dysphoria.

Shoutouts for Solid Play Throughout the Season: Kami, Diego, Bliztank, Theoretical Spy, brandon

Congratulations to both teams for having made it so far and congratulations to dysphoria for making Grand Finals.

marker and e-boy vs. division dysphoria (2-1)
Maps: Product, Steel, Swiftwater

While it may be exciting for dysphoria to get an upset victory here and to take this to Grand Finals pt. II, I doubt that it will happen.

Map-by-Map Breakdown

Product (3-1)

I believe that Product is a map that depends on how well your flank and your combo can work together. I would be willing to chalk up the success of e-boy in their playoffs run to the ability of their combo of Avian and Bonesaw as well as their flank of randyw and Piney to do work for his team but his 15 deaths to Markers when he rang for 1k9k last week shows that Markers is more than capable of shutting him down from doing too much work on this map, Without Piney doing work, I think that the combo for e-boy is both stronger, and has been playing better, than the combo of brandon and extrasolar for dysphoria. Expect big plays by agb on the Sniper if Piney ever manages to stop feeling the pressure of Markers.

Steel (1-2)

This map could honestly go either way. Dysphoria has shown just how strong they can be on this map, having never lost it throughout their entire playoff run. Furthermore, the disappointing performance of e-boy in their match against OWN on this map during the normal season shows just how much they can struggle to coordinate pushes. That being said, I think that this map comes down more to how both teams are feeling in that particular round. If e-boy loses product badly or dysphoria gets stomped on the map, it can lead to one or the other getting tilted and dropping a round that they should not otherwise drop. Because Steel is getting played earlier in the match, I also expect that there should be longer times with better defenses by both teams rather than every offensive time being shorter than 5:30 as we saw in the 1k9k vs. dysphoria match. The longer the rounds go, the more I think that e-boy has the chance to take the map by capitalizing upon their overall stronger players. Coordination will ultimately dictate the winner of this map, as it always seems to do on Steel.

Swiftwater (2-0)

I am of the belief that e-boy is probably the strongest payload team this season on any non-Upward map (which dysphoria wins hands-down). I doubt that this will change during this match, especially as the European players in Piney and extrasolar begin to reach into the wee hours of the morning. While I am not super confident in the pick of Swiftwater over Vigil for e-boy I believe that the combo of e-boy, especially Avian, is simply better than the combo of dysphoria on the map and, when that matters as much as it does for points such as Swiftwater 4th, that sways me to believe that this should be a fairly one-sided map in favor of e-boy.

Player vs. Player Matchup

randyw > Cheers (Medium Advantage)

I think that randyw has shown he is probably the best Scout playing in Advanced right now with dominant performances against all of the other top Advanced Scouts. While I do not think that Cheers will be completely shut out of the game (partly because randyw refuses to chimp for Scouts) I think that we will see bigger numbers coming out of randyw here.

pup < Diego (Small Advantage)

Both of these players have the ability to go off and do a lot of work for their teams and I have no doubt that we will see at least one big bomb from both of them over the course of this match. However, I think that Diego just has a tendency to do slightly more for his team than pup does for his although that could change depending on just how hard one team is winning during any given round.

Plurl > Cookie (Large Advantage)

Plurl is the best supportive pyro in Advanced. He stops spies, he stops bombs, he helps in pushes. Both at his role and in his mechanics I believe that Plurl is simply the better player and will have a bigger impact even if he winds up having less kills than Cookie.

Avian > Brandon (Small Advantage)

Brandon has lost his edge during playoffs. Perhaps because he is playing too afraid or perhaps because of his nerves he has lost the impact that he had earlier in the season and now routinely gets outfragged and outdamaged by his opponents. Both of these players are about equal in their ability to play the class, I just think that Avian is now playing better than Brandon.

Bonesaw < Extrasolar (Small Advantage)

I suck at Steel, Extrasolar is good at it. He is a big brain, my brain is small.

raisins < Abridge (Small Advantage)

Raisins is a fairly inconsistent Medic who performs well or poorly almost entirely off the basis of how well or poorly his team is doing. Abridge is able to be a bit more consistent in his good performances which could make a big difference if the rounds are exceptionally close on any of the maps.

Lasky < Reptiguru (Small Advantage)

They are really close in terms of skill and impact. I think what gives Reptiguru the advantage here is the fact that Lasky both likes men and is a furry (his fursona is a green kangaroo that looks like Yoshi), That's a tragic combination.

Markers > Piney (Very Small Advantage)

Both of these players are good enough to put in work. I think that Markers will do more for his team here off the back of his ability to win SvS, shutting down a crucial member of dysphoria and helping to grind them out on Stopwatch maps.

agb > Zokie0 (Large Advantage)

Zokie0 is not a bad spy, but agb is still the best spy in the division despite him now sounding like a middle schooler from an anime. I expect a decent amount of picks out of Zokie0, but I know agb is capable of single-handedly shifting the course of the game with his ability to get critical combo and Sniper frags. If dysphoria, and in particular cookie, fail to control the spy then you can expect that to cost them rounds if not the match.

Overall Prediction: e-boy 2 - 1 dysphoria
Product: 3-1
Steel: 1-2
Swift; 2-0