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Advanced Playoffs: Week 1 Write-Up and Week 2 Predictions


   Bonesaw   - 12/2/2019
Oof. Both of the teams I put in the top-2 for playoffs both lost and are now in the lower bracket. While it's not super surprising that division dysphoria managed to lose given that they started at a 0-1 deficit. The bigger surprise of the week, at least for me, was the very close 2-1 win of 1k9k versus g2b.

New Playoffs Power Rankings

Given the loss of Kronky as well as FunnyBunny (alting as x) for 1k9k, I think they will be challenged to win as easily as they have in the past. e-boy is looking good after their win against dysphoria and gotta blast is looking like they might be in for a rough match this week. Using these as a predictor of who is likely to win the division, it would feel wrong to not place e-boy, who seem like they are quite favored to make it to Grand Finals, at #1.

1) marker and e-boy
2) division dysphoria
3) gotta blast
4) 1 Korean, 9 Keyboards

Week 1 Write-Ups

division dysphoria vs. marker and e-boy (0-2)

Not much to say here. Even though dysphoria was already down 0-1, they lost hard on ashville, with the top 6 fraggers in the server all being on e-boy. The usually strong combo of brandon and extrasolar struggled to do anything and new pickup randyw for e-boy absolutely demolished the respective flank players on dysphoria.

Map Score:
Steel: Forfeited in Favor of e-boy
Ashville: (0-3)

MVPs of the Match: randyw, Markers, Bonesaw
Shoutout: ult. <3 you brother.

gotta blast vs. 1 Korean, 9 Keyboards (1-2)

A victory that surprised me, although looking back that was mostly because I had underestimated 1k9k on Viaduct and overestimated the abilities of gotta blast on it. Furthermore, there were strong performances by substitute pantherr as well as Theoretical Spy and (now-banned) Kronky.

On Viaduct, 1k9k asserted their ability to dominate on the map. Despite the best efforts of very good players in animus and josh, the rest of g2b just did not do very much with poor performances out of pretty much every other gamer asides from nerdaloid. This map was pretty one-sided.

On Swiftwater, we saw the same dominant performance out of 1k9k on the second round but, in the first and the third, they floundered. The first round was dominated by the flank of nazara and josh for g2b supported by animus keeping Kronky down with 6 sniper kills. The third round was the most back-and-forth, and longest, of the rounds. animus popped off this round, getting over 400 DPM on the Sniper class despite the pick classes of 1k9k putting in work and being responsible for 13 out of animus's 16 deaths. The strong performance of animus as well as nazara and Nerdaloid were enough to secure the win for g2b on this map.

On Vigil, g2b's lack of coordination came back to haunt them. They lost to the better teamwork of 1k9k which allowed the combo of pantherr and Bz as well as the pick classes of Kronky and Theoretical Spy to frag out, both of which can be shut down by simply playing smarter on this map. When even J_Peg is able to go 25 and 15 as Scout on Payload, there were clearly fundamental issues with the gameplay of g2b on this map which bodes poorly for the ability of g2b to win their upcoming match.

Map Score:
Product: (1-3)
Swiftwater (2-1)
Vigil (0-2)

MVPs of the Match: pantherr, Kronky, animus

Week 2 Predictions

Lower Bracket: division dysphoria vs. gotta blast (1-2)
Maps: Lakeside, Ashville, Steel

I am not completely sold on the thought process of dysphoria going into this match. The pick of Lakeside is very solid, with dysphoria having beaten g2b 4-0 on the map during the regular season. However, dysphoria is not exactly known for being very coordinated or very good at Steel. Especially with the weak performance of their combo in their match against e-boy, they will probably struggle on that map. I am also not confident in their ability to win on ashville given their performance on it last week (which I am sure was being banked on by g2b).

On Lakeside, I expect dysphoria to perform very well. piney will almost certainly frag out and will hopefully be supported by solid gameplay from extrasolar and brandon. I expect that the reformed flank of josh and nazara as well as animus will be able to do more work than they were able to in the previous match but I would be surprised if they managed to take the win here.

On Ashville, I expect gotta blast to be able to bounce back after losing their first map with solid scrim results (although boosted by a certain gamer's trashcan internet) against e-boy, who handily won their match on this map last week against dysphoria. I expect josh and nazara to put in a lot of work here. However, this map is super combo-dependant and if kung fu kenny and Guy are unable to do enough to support their flank here, their playoff run could come to an early end especially if they let piney do too much work on this poor Sniper map. Dysphoria's scrim results this week are not looking much more promising, with them getting curbstomped by low-Invite team Impostors 3-0 on the map.

On Steel, it seems dubious that either team is highly favored to win. Both teams lack strong coordination and both rely on individual plays to win. However, if tacos can get his team to play together they should be able to win. dysphoria has had poor scrim results on this map against OWN and in other scrims during Steel week. Neither team has been scrimming this map so it will probably come down to the inherent ability of the teams to play well. Who knows who will win this map.

Expected Map Results:
Lakeside: (3-1)
Ashville: (0-3)
Steel: (1-2)

Player Matchups

I'm lazy and do not really feel like explaining the choices in much depth here.

Cheers < josh (Large Advantage)

Josh is good.

Diego < nazara (Small Advantage)

Nazara has the ability to do a lot of work on almost any map with his very good bombs. Diego is better at waddling.

Cookie < tacos (Small Advantage)

Tacos has more experience between the two non-Pyro mains playing Pyro.

brandon > kung fu kenny (Small Advantage)

Brandon is gooder.

extrasolar > Guy (Small Advantage)

extrasolar is gooder.

Abridge = ryan

No advantage, it is medic and neither are FunnyBunny.

Reptiguru > baocn

Reptiguru farms.

piney > animus (Small Advantage)

Piney has been killer throughout the whole season but animus can also carry. This should be close.

Zokie0 < Nerdaloid (Small Advantage)

Nerdaloid popped off last week and has kept popping off in scrims, Zokie0 never really pops off.

Upper Bracket: marker and e-boy vs. 1 Korean, 9 Keyboards (2-1)
Maps: Product, Ashville, Vigil

If 1k9k still had their original roster, rather than subs due to bans, I would give them a better chance of winning here. However, due to the loss of x and Kronky, being replaced by rebyte (of 2w fame) and deadpixel (of fame in general). While both of these players are solid, deadpixel in particular most likely cannot fill the giant void created by the absence of Kronky.

On Viaduct, I suspect that the loss of Kronky will have the biggest impact. On their match in the regular season on this map, Kronky topfragged by far for his team, beating out the next gamer ( J_Peg) by 11 kills and absolutely demolishing Avian for e-boy with 8 demo picks. However, discounting the ability of san antonio 1998 green mustang and Kami to do an immense amount of work on Viaduct is never a good bet.

On Ashville, the amount of practice put into the map by e-boy will likely shine through. Already allowing them to beat dysphoria handily on the map, they should be able to perform once again as indicated by solid scrim results against g2b as well as a potential new Invite team for next season. Markers and agb in particular just seem to have this map down pat, and the addition of randyw only solidifies their ability to control all parts of the map while relieving pressure. To win here we would need to see some big plays coming out of the combo of 1k9k to make up for the lack of Kronky.

On Vigil, if it gets to this map, this should be a fairly clean victory for e-boy. While 1k9k swept g2b on this map, e-boy has also had scrims where they swept 1k9k on this map, as well as g2b and gone even or beaten Invite teams. it should not be a roll, but I would be surprised if this map went 2-1.

Predicted Results per Map:
Product (3-2)
Ashville (1-3)
Vigil (0-2)

Player v. Player Matchup

I am still lazy.

randyw > J_peg (Large Advantage)

J_Peg is a very solid player but randyw has both more experience and better DM.

pup < Kami (Small Advantage)

I expect pup to do better on Ashville and Vigil but Kami has a large advantage on Product.

Plurl > Bliztank (Small Advantage)

Bliztank has shown his ability to do work and make plays but I think Plurl is the best pyro in the division, especially after the performance of tacos in his match against 1k9k.

Avian > san antonio 1998 green mustang (Small Advantage)

I think mustang is a large advantage player on product but a medium disadvantage player on both ashville and vigil.

Bonesaw < Bz (I suck)

Bz is good.

raisins < rebyte (Small Advantage)

raisins is good but the Invite medic sub beats him out in survivability, which is huge when 2 KOTH maps are being played.

Lasky < Constantly (Small Advantage)

They are very close but I think that Constantly has better DM and can thus do more work on 2 KOTH maps.

Makers > deadpixel (Large Advantage)

Markers has been playing very well throughout the whole season against top-level Snipers. Deadpixel has done well in scrims but has been underwhelming despite his high-level experience.

agb > Theoretical Spy

agb is still the best spy in the division even if his new microphone makes him sound like a manlet.