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Advanced Week 6 Predictions and Week 5 Review


   perenne   - 10/14/2018


We’re rapidly approaching the end of the regular season, but not before cp_steel week. Steel is a map notorious for extremely strong coordination and perfect split-second decision making needed to win. It’s infamous for killing teams, making players rage, and being such a difficult map to play. Having superior DPM doesn’t always win- coordination and communication is key for steel. After many teams have had shaky roster switch ups, these matches can be hard to predict.

Last Week In Review

BM=BAE defeats Black Trash Bags (4-0)

Complete disaster hit Black Trash Bags, as Ipaka and Funnybunny (Demoman / Medic) both step down mere days before the hardest match of the season. Internal conflicts really hurt the team, and VeLT (Scout) not being able to play either didn’t add any help to 33gal’s cause. Lenny and T.K. of Heals On Everyone stepped in to ring Scout and Engineer, respectively, but the complete discombobulation between the team gave BM=BAE a fairly easy win. BM=BAE continued their streak of wins, once again not dropping a single round. With both teams running Kritzkreig full-time, things would get very destructive and dangerous quick, with BM (Demoman) being the kritz target for most. Although the kritz obviously helped, individual performance gave him 880 DPM, which was absolutely insane. While some of these rounds were close, BM=BAE continued to show their dominance in the division, with a swift 4-0 victory. Black Trash Bags had even more bad news after, as both VeLT and DOOMBRINGER_ (Scout / Soldier) stepped down after the game, meaning in 36 hours, 33gal lost a Scout, Soldier, Demoman, and Medic.


Egfug defeats the Flow (4-2)

Egfug had a slow start, but once they began winning rounds, they were nearly unstoppable. The first half ended 2-1 in favor of the Flow, after a 7 minute second round gave Egfug their only round of the first half. The Flow looked like they were in good shape, but Stabby Stabby (Egfug Spy) made a legendary return and got 11 frags in the first round of the second half. This tied the score 2-2, and lead to a bloody round that lasted nearly 9 minutes, where Reika (Sniper) and Pellovely (Demoman) lead the server in kills and gave Egfug their 3rd round. Tilted and discouraged, the final round of the night ended with the Flow barely able to get cap time, and Egfug would finish 4-2, thanks to Pellovely getting 540 DPM and 45 kills (nearly topping the server). Nucket (Scout) really put the Flow on his back trying to carry, top-fragging with 46 frags, as well as Rev (Sniper) getting 43- but it was still not enough to get a victory for the Flow. Another team discouraged after a lost, Nucket and Pyrhus left the Flow shortly after their defeat.

MVP: Pellovely

Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty and Heals On Everyone both get a BYE.


Heals On Everyone (4-1) vs the Flow (1-4)
Black Trash Bags (3-2) vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty (4-1)
Egfug (2-3) vs BM=BAE (5-0)
Bye Week vs Bye Week #2

Match Of The Week: Heals On Everyone vs the Flow

BLNKT / Yuki / TK / Lizar / Joey / Mono72 / ? / Lenny / Cooldog
? / Bark / Hornet / Wxy / Blue99 / Kumora / ZoomxZe / Rev / Goldin

After Nucket departed from the Flow, the Flow are cripped going into a hard match vs Heals On Everyone. At the same time, however, Heals are also having their own separate roster changes- it’s unclear who their Medic will be for this game (SpotlightR is trying out on sunday night, but it is unclear who will play the match and the rest of the season). Hornet returns for the Flow on Pyro, which does bring some stability to FL- Hornet played with many of the players on the Flow last UGC Season. The Scout for the match, however, is still unknown, with leader Blue99 saying the Scout will be, “whoever shows up.” Both teams enter cp_steel with questionable and unstable rosters, giving both teams a hard change for success. Without coordination on either side, this may just result in a DM fest, where Heals should be able to get the win. Changing their heavy from Lizard to Joey is a decision that could make or break this game, but Heals still looks confident in their roster. Joey has shown to be very capable on Heavy at a high level, so this decision may be a smart call, but many internal conflicts still brings question to HoE’s capability in this match, which may give FL a round or even the win all together.

Predicted Winner: Heals On Everyone
Predicted Score: 2-1
Important Players: BLNKT, Joey (HoE); Bark, Wxy (FL)

Black Trash Bags vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty

Inky / Lenn / Plurl / Earthworker / Bonko / ? / Cloud / Aeon / Jebus
RandomCookie / Fuego / PyroSquirrel / Gong / Octa / Nerrari / Dreadnaught / TheS4rr / Vizie

Black Trash Bags has had a very hectic week. Replacing 4 people, especially the combo, does not come easy. This is also right before a coordination-focused map. This is also where you don’t want to replace your highlander mains with 6s mains who don’t play cp_steel often. At this point, the roster of 33gal is such a roll-of-the-dice, that it’s completely unpredictable how this match will turn out. Pretzels, on the other hand, are one of the few rosters that haven’t had major switch ups in the last week, which should give them an advantage going into a map like steel. Gong (Demoman) continues to play well, and Octa (Heavy) is such a threat on any map. The combo of Pretzels has been the same since the season started, making Pretzels a much more solid team.

Predicted Winner: Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty
Predicted Score: 2-1
Important Players: Earthworker, Bonko (33gal); Fuego, Gong (Pretzels)

Egfug vs BM=BAE

AngryOfficer / Vipa / Duck / Pellovely / Spu / Shredder / KTqt / Reika / Manbug
Rebel / Khil / Pnut / BM / Gert / Sigafoo / Tacos / Markers / Fallen

The only match where neither team is plagued with massive roster changes, BM=BAE gives no reason why they would drop another round. Gert (Heavy) and BM (Demoman) have been doing a lot of work for their team every match, and cp_steel is a map where the combo needs to be doing that. Spu (Heavy) and Pellovely (Demoman) have also had good success, but running pipes-only may hold back the team. Rebel and Khil (Scout / Soldier) have been a very strong flank, and the flanks of each team will need to be very coordinated to make steel work. BAE has stronger coordination, and this should give them the advantage in the game. Steel may be the 1 map where a slip up is possible, so a round could possibly be dropped from BM=BAE. Defense death-timers are up to 20 seconds, so any slight error could be punished massively, giving Egfug a possible round.

Predicted Winner: BM=BAE
Predicted Score: 2-0
Important Players: Vipa, Spu (Egfug); Khil, Fallen (BAE)

Bye Week vs Bye Week #2

Pretty intense match tbh not sure who will come out on top really