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Advanced Week 4 Predictions and Week 3 Review


   perenne   - 9/29/2018


Upward is a staple map for highlander, and this season it returns in week 4. Payload is great for teams that have superior coordination, and sometimes kills and DM don’t always win a match. Advanced lost a team last week, as Breakfast Club HL died. Thus, a BYE week was given to the teams that would have played them. Without further delay, let’s review the week 3 matches and look at the upcoming matches for week 4.

Week 3 Recap

Heals On Everyone defeats Egfug (4-2)
Egfug’s roster changes still showed a lot of promise, but playing against the team that is widely considered the best in Advanced was just bad luck. Vipa (Soldier) was able to get a lot of frags and DPM, and Pellovely (Demoman) was able to do the same, but Egfug would be unable to pick up the win. Rounds that Egfug won were extremely close, but the rounds that Heals On Everyone won were done fairly strong and emphasized how dominant HoE was. Lizar (Demoman) actually top-DPM’d the server, with over 575 DPM over 6 rounds. Ebsikl and Yuki (Scout / Soldier) top fragged for their team, and Egfug would lose despite putting up a fight.
MVP: Lizar

Black Trash Bags defeats the Flow (4-0)
FL stepped into this match switching their Demoman and Soldier, and changing a flank class on Ashville is a very risky move. Although Wxy typically plays Demoman, he played Soldier in this match instead, with Bark assuming the role of Demoman. Although they entered this match with full confidence, Ipaka (Demoman) getting 650 DPM in the first 2 halves stopped momentum quick. 33gal had double the kills of FL in the first 2 rounds, with almost every player on the team dying 5 times or less. FL switched back to their original roster, putting Bark on Soldier and Wxy back on Demoman for the second half, but it still wasn’t enough to save the game. ZoomxZe (FL Medic) died 13 times over the 4 rounds, which gave 33gal 5 more ubers. DOOMBRINGER_ (Soldier) and VeLT (Scout) completely out-performed the flank of FL, providing constant pressure that gave 33gal such a huge advantage. In the second half, Aeon (33gal. Sniper) also dominated, getting over 500 DPM and 15 frags, while barely dying, making FL unable to get any sort of room. 33gal had a very strong game, and FL were unable to compete

Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty defeats Seductive 9 (4-2)
Last week’s Match Of The Week ends with Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty winning against Seductive 9. Although Wax (Heavy) got 45 frags and Durr (Scout) got 55, S9 still didn’t have nearly the amount of DM needed to defeat Pretzels. Behind by over 8000 DM in combined logs, S9 couldn’t get any sort of momentum for pushes, and Pretzels could continuously hold them back. Despite them falling behind in DM, S9 was able to get nearly as many kills, with them only behind 30 kills over 6 rounds. Although the score may show S9 losing by a decent amount of rounds, almost every round was close and went into the 6 or 7 minute range. Dog (Scout) got 6 medic frags for Pretzels, with F][re (Soldier) getting 5 as well. Gong (Demoman) got just under 500 DPM, which top DPM’d the server. Gong had over 120 DPM higher than the rest of his team, and gave Pretzels so much room to work with.
MVP: Gong

BM=BAE gets a BYE week
With the untimely death of Breakfast Club HL, BM=BAE had no match and collected a free win.


BM=BAE (3-0) vs Heals On Everyone (3-0)
The Flow (1-2) vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty (2-1)
Seductive 9 (1-2) vs Egfug (0-3)
Black Trash Bags gets a BYE week

Match Of The Week: BM=BAE vs Heals On Everyone

Rebel / Khil / Pnut / BM / Gert / Sigafoo / Tacos / Markers / Fallen
Ebsikl / Yuki / Joey / Lizar / Lizard / Mono / BLNKT / Lenny / Cooldog

The two titans clash for week 4 upward. With the only two teams in the league that is 3-0, both are looking to destroy the other to advance to 4-0. Although many of the teams in Advanced are very close in skill, these 2 teams are a step above the rest, and will make for a very close and interesting match. Markers (BAE Sniper) and Lenny (HoE Sniper) have been dominating the division, and they both do so much for their teams. Lizar (Demoman) and Lizard (Heavy) both perform very well on payload maps, and Upward is a map that has played to many of Heals’ strengths. Rebel and Khil (Scout / Soldier) have been extremely strong as a flank, but Ebsikl and Yuki are the only other flank in the division that would be able to contest or beat them. BM (Demoman) has had very strong DPM for the last few weeks, and Gert (Heavy) has been able to support him throughout it all, including on the earlier payload map this season, Swiftwater. Individual performances from the pick classes will determine the winner entirely, as this map and matchup are so close that any room the Snipers can make will save the team. Heals is going in with such a strong flank, combo, and pick classes, which may be able to out edge BM=BAE. But if one team was to defeat the powerhouse that is Heals On Everyone, it would be BM=BAE.

Predicted Winner: Heals On Everyone
Predicted Score: 2-1
Important Players: Ebsikl, Lenny (HoE); BM, Markers (BAE)
This match will be casted here at 9:30 PM EST on Monday.

The Flow vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty

Nucket / Bark / Pyrrhus / Wxy / Blue99 / Kumora / ZoomxZe / Zanda? / Goldin
RandomCookie / F][re / PyroSquirrel / Gong / Octa / Nerrari / Dreadnaught / TheS4rr / Vizie

After their week 1 defeat, Pretzels have had 2 victories and big momentum going into their 4th match. The Flow, however, have been unable to get a round after their Product victory. Gong (Demoman) has continued to get high DPM and play well, and F][re (Soldier) has also been performing well. Pretzels has a strong win against Egfug on Swiftwater, which arguably is a better team than the Flow. With low morale, FL are desperate for a win, but Pretzels is only coming in with so much momentum to work with. Small roster changes for both teams include Zanda (Sniper) no longer maining for FL, and Nerrari (Engineer) starting to main for Pretzels. Having your main Sniper step down is never good, but against strong sniper like TheS4rr, this spells disaster for FL. Nucket (Scout) and Wxy (Demoman) really need to do well for their team, as they look outclassed in most cases. Although Nucket is a great player with good DM, his duties as Scout need him on the cart, which limits his time for fragging. Wxy can try his best to carry his team with DM, but Gong has just as good DM as him, and a strong team to fall back on. After a lackluster performance the last 2 weeks, FL doesn’t look nearly as strong as Pretzels.

Predicted Winner: Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty
Predicted Score: 2-0
Important Players: Nucket, Wxy (FL); Gong, TheS4rr (Pretzels)

Seductive 9 vs Egfug

Durr / ?? / ?? / Teats McGhee / Wax / Mothership / Sand / Shotaway / Lunean
AngryOfficer / Vipa / Duck / Pellovely / Spu / Shredder / KTqt / Reika / Manbug

The Egfug dream team has finally settled down, and after a bit of rough scheduling, Egfug is looking for its first win. S9 had an unfortunate loss last week, and now are looking to redeem themselves. Payload is looking like S9’s stronger gamemode, and it doesn’t work in Egfug’s favor either, as Pellovely (Demoman) is not able to run around and DM nearly as much as he can on koth maps. Durr (Sciyt) was a big favor in S9’s Swiftwater win, as cap time was so hard to get after he would wipe the cart, and he would get so much cart time on offense. Vipa (Soldier) has the DM to shut him out, however, and the experience that Egfug brings is definitely a big factor in their favor. Wax (S9 Heavy) has been performing very well recently, and although him and Spu (Egfug Heavy) aren’t heavy mains, neither of them underperform. Tom Servo and Crab_F have both left S9, with Tom Servo stepping down citing work. With that, S9's Soldier and Pyro is unknown, which definitely doesn't help S9's case. Manbug (Spy) is a hard spy to play against, and without a main pyro, Egfug should be able to defeat S9 here. Payload is S9’s strength, though, so a win is still possible for them.

Predicted Winner: Egfug
Predicted Score: 2-1
Important Players: Wax, Durr (S9); Vipa, Manbug (Egfug)

Week 4 Matches
Advanced Division League Table
Article Written by Cloud and Tacos, with SFM picture by Sebbers