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Advanced Week 3 Predictions and Week 2 Review


   perenne   - 9/22/2018

BREAKING- Breakfast Club HL Dies

This article was written before Breakfast Club HL disbanded. At the time of writing this, there are 2 people rostered on Breakfast Club HL, with leader Witness citing players leaving for various reasons, including IRL commitments, desire to focus on 6s, and others leaving because of other teammates leaving.


The season continues with koth_ashville_rc1. KOTH maps generally reward good DM, and Ashville is no different. However, strong flanks can completely change the winner of the game, and teams will need their Scout and Soldier to keep the pressure high and turn the tides of fights. Especially when 4 of the teams are 1-1, these matches are close and will shake up the division as a whole.


Heals On Everyone (2-0) vs Egfug (0-2)
BM=BAE (2-0) vs Breakfast Club HL (0-2)
Black Trash Bags (1-1) vs the Flow (1-1)
Seductive 9 (1-1) vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty (1-1)

Week 2 In Review

Swiftwater is a very difficult payload map, and it’s among the most coordination-required maps in the game. Week 2 was a difficult map for many teams, but it’s finally over. Luckily, many of the teams are now 1-1, making close competition and even more motivation for teams to focus and work to win week 3. Let’s check back to the scores from Week 2, pl_swiftwater_final1.

Heals On Everyone defeats Breakfast Club HL (2-0)
HoE went in missing multiple mains, including Lizar (Demoman) and Lenny (Sniper). Although they were missing Lenny, who many consider their best player, Perfection stepped in and performed equally as well, who top fragged the server. Witness (Heavy) played very well for Breakfast Club, but in the end BC fell short. However, Lizard (Heavy) had the highest K/D on the server, with an astounding K/D of 45/13 (3.5), with 30 assists. Lizard’s role on the combo really gave Heals the stability they needed in a match where most of their players were not their mains.
MVP: Lizard (Honorable Mention: Perfection)

Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty defeats Egfug (2-1)
With a roster that was thrown together and changed around last minute, egfug went into the match with a collection of players who were not as familiar or coordinated with each other. Despite their best efforts, Egfug would end up losing to Pretzels after taking it to a tiebreaker 3rd round. Pellovely (Demoman) was doing a lot for his team, but Pretzels were playing very well and got the win. Gong (Demoman) had over 500 DPM across 3 halves, and he really put Pretzels on his back to get this win.
MVP: Gong

BM=BAE defeats the Flow (2-0)
This was a rough defeat for the Flow, as they went in very confident and looked to contest BM=BAE. After a 13 minute time on offense in the first half, BM=BAE would end up capping with a few minutes to spare. Markers (Sniper) would consistently get frags, and BM (Demoman) was always able to stop pushes. BAE ran kritz on offense for a bit, which, although not considered the best strategy, was able to work in their favor, and Pnut (Pyro) running phlog was able to get a quick force on 2nd offense, which crippled the Flow’s second hold. BM=BAE capped last in a little over 5 minutes- an insanely fast capture. Many on the Flow were tilted after the first half, which may have contributed to their 2nd half being so short. Zanda (Sniper) tried his best to help out FL, and was able to get some key medic picks, but overall FL was just unable to stop the dominant machine that is BM=BAE.

Seductive 9 defeats Black Trash Bags (2-1)
A laggy server can really make a match difficult. After a laggy first half that ended with S9 taking a win, the server was restarted only to make playing even more difficult. Despite 33gal getting more frags and DM in the half, S9 played more to the objective and was much more coordinated. Despite tilt setting in for the second half, 33gal only came back with a 7 minute time (which was actually almost matched by S9, with the cart only a few feet away from being capped). Jumping servers for a 3rd half, 33gal swept through 2 points in 2 minutes, which looked to end the match with another fairly short time. However, S9’s 3rd hold was unbreakable, and the flank of Durr and Crab_F (Scout / Soldier) made S9 have an 8 minute hold onto 3rd, and resulted in a 13 minute cap. Despite Ipaka (Demoman) getting just under 60 frags, AND FunnyBunny (Medic) dying only 10 times over 3 halves, 33gal fell short and was unable to pick up a win. S9’s flank top fragged with 66 and 64 frags each for Crab_F and Durr, and gives S9 a lot of momentum going into their 3rd week.
MVP: Crab_F (Honorable Mention: Durr)

Match Of The Week: Seductive 9 vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty

S9: Durr / Crab_F / Tom Servo / Teats McGhee / Wax / Mothership / Sand / Shotaway / Lunean
Pretzels: RandomCookie / Fire / PyroSquirrel / Gong / Octa / Dog / Dreadnought / TheS4rr / Vizie

Both teams feel confident after wins on Swiftwater, and each team has the right to do so. After unfortunate losses on Product for both teams, redemption was made and now Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty and Seductive 9 are both 1-1. However, only one team will leave the match with a positive record. Durr and Crab_F (Scout / Soldier) both played fantastically on Swiftwater, and with a strong flank, Ashville can be a map that S9 can go into feeling confident. Teats McGhee (Demoman) will also be able to help S9 with a lot of damage. Gong (Demoman) looks absolutely unstoppable in recent weeks, however, with strong performances after every scrim and match, and his DPM can definitely make Pretzels be a tough match for S9. RandomCookie and Fire (Scout / Soldier) are also extremely skilled players on their respective classes. Although TheS4rr (Sniper) is a very strong sniper, Ashville is a map that doesn’t let him do as much work as he normally could do. S9 should be able to pick up the win, but just barely. Pretzels look like a tough opponent, and will be on the heels of S9 the entire game.

Predicted Winner: Seductive 9
Predicted Score: 4-3
Important Players: Durr, Crab_F (S9); Gong, RandomCookie (Pretzels)

Black Trash Bags vs The Flow

33gal: VeLT / DOOMBRINGER_ / Plurl / Ipaka / Bonko / Cloud / FunnyBunny / Aeon / Jebus
FL: Nucket / Bark / Pyrrhus / Wxy / Blue99 / Kurama / ZoomxZe / Zanda / Goldin

Despite losses for both teams during Week 2, neither team has lost any confidence going into the Week 3 matchup. Ipaka (Demoman) still had a very strong game during Swiftwater, and although his team lost, he still put up impressive DPM. Combined with a flank that is coordinated and familiar with each other in VeLT (Scout) and DOOMBRINGER_ (Soldier), 33gal can go into any koth map and feel prepared. The Flow also have a very strong flank- Bark (Soldier) is one of the best in advanced on Soldier, and Nucket (Scout) consistently gets frags for his team. Although the flank of FL looks like a very tough challenge, both of these teams have played each other for a very long time. Blue99 (FL Heavy + Leader) and Cloud (33gal. Engineer + Leader) have constantly scrimmed and played each other since April of 2018. Despite some roster changes on both sides, these teams have plenty of experience playing each other, with 33gal coming on top more often than not. Jebus (Spy) has always had strong performances against Blue99, consistently getting numerous medic kills that turn the favor to 33gal. Despite Blue99’s confidence in his team, the results and history are not on his side

Predicted Winner: 33gal
Predicted Score: 4-2
Important Players: Ipaka, Jebus (33gal); Nucket, Bark (FL)

BM=BAE vs Breakfast Club HL

BAE: Rebel / Khil / Pnut / BM / Gert / Sigafoo / Tacos / Markers / Fallen
BC: Ninjax / Ether / Charis / Jay / Witness / Aad / Burko / Rkr / Donovin

BM=BAE looks extremely strong right now, especially considering they are one of the few teams that is 2-0. BM (Demoman) is constantly playing well, and Markers (Sniper) has also been performing very well. Rebel and Khil (Scout / Soldier) have also been playing extremely well, and on Ashville they should be able to do a lot of work. Meanwhile Breakfast Club HL is 0-2, and has yet to get a single round. Although Ninjax (Scout) has great DM, BC looks extremely discombobulated and doesn’t have much going for them. Aad (Engineer) is an experienced highlander player, but on engineer he won’t be able to do much. Jay (Demoman) can do a lot for his team, but BC has been struggling in matches, where BM=BAE looks extremely comfortable and dominant in the first few weeks of the season.

Predicted Winner: BM=BAE
Predicted Score: 4-0
Important Players: BM, Rebel (BAE), Ninjax, Jay (BC)

egfug vs Heals On Everyone

Egfug: AngryOfficer / Vipa / Duck / Pellovely / Spu??? / Shredder / KTqt / Reika / Manbug
HoE: Ebiskl / Yuki / Joey / Lizar / Lizard / Mono72 / BLNKT / Lenny / Cooldog

Although egfug lost on Swiftwater, their recent roster changes did show promising improvement. Pellovely (Demoman) is still able to do a lot of work, despite being on shield only, and this can give egfug a big advantage. Vipa (Soldier) is also an experienced player, who, although not on soldier previously, has multiple seasons of high-platinum. Vanilla Love (Heavy) is also a very solid heavy who can support Pellovely in pushes. At the same time though, Heals is continuing it’s streak of strong victories, and despite missing multiple players on swiftwater, still came up with a 2-0 victory. Ebiskl and Yuki (Scout / Soldier) are such a strong flank, and this gives Heals such a huge advantage every time. Joey (Pyro) has also returned, and he has a lot of experience playing with Lizar (Demoman) and Lizard (Heavy). With their main roster back, Heals should be able to defeat egfug, although egfug should be able to get a round or 2. Although egfug is at the bottom of division in record, they should still be able to put up a good fight against Heals, and later in the season should get some wins. It’s unfortunate that they have to play Heals as soon as they settle into their new roster, because if it was any other team, egfug might have been able to win. But this may unfortunately result in egfug being 0-3.

Predicted Winner: Heals On Everyone
Predicted Score: 4-1
Important Players: Ebiskl, Yuki (HoE); Vipa, Pellovely (Egfug)

A few roster changes

A few rosters have been moved around a bit, and this makes a few matches very interesting.
Joey joins Heals On Everyone as Pyro, replacing T.K. Joey has experience with Lizar and Lizard, so he should fit in with HoE very easily and make them another strong team. T.K. becomes a free agent.

Egfug has had a different roster every match, with them picking up players right before week 1 and having to change around for week 2 and 3 as well. AngryOfficer and Vipa became the flank just a few days before Week 2, and week 3 another roster change regarding egfug brings back an old face: Spu has joined Egfug as Heavy, which is a class he has not played as, being mostly known for Spy (and some Sniper). Considering Spu was banned for the first 2 weeks of the season due to distasteful behavior, he has returned and is hopefully back and better than ever, even if it is on a class that he does not have the most experience on.

Dooter joins as a Free Agent
Monsta rosters on BM=BAE after leaving Heals On Everyone
Insouciant rosters on Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty
Dinko rosters on Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty
T.K. joins as a Free Agent after leaving Heals On Everyone
Nect0 rosters on Heals On Everyone
Hypedad32 joins as a Free Agent
Spu reportedly joins Egfug

Week 3 Matches
Advanced Division League Table