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Main Week 1 Review & Week 2 Match Predictions


   cyclowns   - 9/14/2018


Week 2 is our first Payload map of the season, Swiftwater! Swiftwater is a personal favorite of mine, and this week’s results along with the last should help us understand which teams might be more coordination-focused or DM-focused.

Going Forward

Last week’s main article might have been a little rushed, but I’m happy with how everything turned out . From now on, every article for RGL-Main will follow the same general format of this article--intro, last week’s matches roundup, and predictions. As a side note, I’ve decided to omit power rankings for the rest of the season. This is for several reasons; first, there is no real objective way to rank teams accurately; there are too few teams in the Main division for any particularly large skill gap; and adding on to that, the RGL Admins did such an incredible job placing teams and managing divisions that each team is actually really, really close in skill level.

Last Week’s Match Results

MOTW: Forty-Two Pence vs Disingenuous Assertions

Prediction: 4-0 DAT
Result: 4-2 F2P

Well, in my defense, podgy713 only informed me that DOOMBRINGER and sophie weren’t playing after I had finished last week’s article. Hopefully this pred will be the most wrong I’ll be for the rest of the season. But, enough about my predictions and more about the match! Huge props to F2P for completely wrecking my predictions and also beating the team I ranked #1 in Main. F2P’s victory here only shows just how truly competitive of a division Main is right now, and that’s a great thing.

Outstanding Performances: podgy713, 3hree (DAT) Bonesaw, Kamil, percy, 5perm, Flare (F2P)

Slippery When Wet vs Swift Inc.

Prediction: 4-3 Swift
Result: 4-2 Swift

Not a whole lot to say about this match, honestly. I had a couple players listed incorrectly for Swift (Puffalo and Dave), but I think their new roster ended up being a benefit to them. Good match overall, congrats to Swift for the victory!

Outstanding Performances: asher, KootyKay, Burtilian, Dave (Swift) Michaelpc1, Hino (SWW)

Blackjack and Hookers vs Home Depot eSports

Prediction: 4-3 HDptE
Result: 4-1 HDptE

Hey, I played in this one! Honestly, I have nothing but good things to say about this match and about B&H. This was legitimately some of the most enjoyable highlander I’ve played in a long time, and I hope that the players on B&H feels the same way.

Outstanding Performances: patches, Wubs, Diabolical, Liam (HDptE) Zabi, asian (B&H)

Itty Bitty Kitty Committee vs Gotta Blast

Prediction: 4-2 G2B
Result: 4-1 G2B

Again, not much to say here. IBKC put up a good fight and proved my predictions at least a little right by taking a round off of G2B. Congrats to G2B for the win!

Outstanding Performances: josh, kezia, nazara (G2B) saucy, dailydoseofmelon (IBKC)

Week 2 - pl_swiftwater_final1 Match Predictions

Itty Bitty Kitty Committee vs Disingenuous Assertions

IBKC: saucy / Brandan / kitty / kjr / Rayman5000 / Salad Snek / GeneralNick / dailydoseofmelon / Steaklington
DAT: SpotlightR / shohh / Charizard / ash / Moist Master / livst1d / Dubthink / podgy713 / 3hree

Well.. last week, this pred would have been a lot different. However, if I ignored those matches then this wouldn’t be a very objective article. DAT did severely underperform on KOTH last week, but that doesn’t mean the same will hold true for a map requiring much more coordination like Swiftwater. DAT has previously had very good scrim results on Payload maps like Swiftwater or Badwater, even beating out F2P; who they lost to last week 4-2. Overall, DAT’s individual player experience appears to lend them an advantage on Payload rather than KOTH maps. However, that’s not to say that none of these things apply to IBKC as well. IBKC is a team that’s been around for a very long time with a relatively stable roster and it should come as no surprise that IBKC does equally as well on Payload against teams that DAT has played in the past, such as Home Depot eSports.

Overall, this will certainly be an interesting match to look at the results of. IBKC presents their strongest showings and scrim performances ever, and DAT is coming right off of a loss against F2P. I still think that DAT has the better roster on paper, with lots of individual and team experience to boot, so I’m going to take their side on this. Regardless of the result, this will be an extremely close game and I wouldn’t mind seeing IBKC take the W.

Prediction: 2-1 DAT
Gamechangers: Steaklington, Rayman5000, kjr (IBKC) ash, Moist Master, podgy713 (DAT)

Forty-Two Pence vs Swift Inc.

F2P: Bonesaw / Flare / Inquisition / Kamil / locke (?)/ Starfruit66 / Ruins / percy / 5perm
Swift: asher / Puffalo / soleil / Brick / Burtilian / KootyKay / GreenAndGold / egwat / Dave

F2P’s victory against DAT last week (the last time I mention it, I swear) is certainly going to give them a morale boost in this next Swiftwater match. F2P’s scrim results and roster on paper certainly give them an edge over Swift, and that edge might be enough for F2P to completely sweep this match. On the other side of the coin, Swift’s scrims on Payload aren’t too numerous yet, but it’s enough to glean that they might be quite a bit weaker than F2P on certain maps.

It’ll be interesting to see where this match goes. It’s absolutely possible for Swift to take a half off of F2P; but I believe in F2P’s ability to keep their win streak going.

Prediction: 2-0 F2P
Gamechangers: 5perm (THE gamechanger, according to their roster), percy, Kamil, Starfruit66 (F2P) Brick, Dave, KootyKay (Swift)

Blackjack and Hookers vs Slippery When Wet

B&H: Zabi / Gw4lk / Klowwd / katryna / Paul / Grynn / Teli / asian / E_leet
SWW: Poltergeist / koolaidalan / sharky / Vythern / Musique / Jman / VinnyKoren / Michaelpc1 / Hino

Not to doubt SWW’s skill as players, but them coming off a fresh Scout/Soldier roster change combined with B&H’s great scrim results and SWW’s below-average scrim results spells disaster for SWW. B&H has the much better roster on paper, as well as what might be the best coordination in the whole of RGL-Main, on a map that rewards having a great combo and engineer. Sniper is much less of a factor on Swiftwater than a map like Product, so Michaelpc1 shouldn’t have nearly as much of an impact as he did for SWW on KOTH or other Payload maps.

Overall, I think B&H should be able to sweep this match fairly quickly. However, with a bit of a miracle in the form of sharky or Musique, SWW could secure a half for themselves.

Prediction: 2-0 B&H
Gamechangers: katryna, Paul, Grynn (B&H) sharky, Musique, Vythern, Hino (SWW)

Gotta Blast vs Home Depot eSports

G2B: josh / nazara / lambda / nickk / Nerdaloid / baocn / PsychoPsyduck / Mhenlo / myk (subject to change according to Nerdaloid)
HDptE: inky / Wubs / Diabolical / Apple Zoo / Luigi / cyclowns / raisins / Liam / Micahlele

This matchup has the potential to be MOTW, but the lack of accurate scrims on Swiftwater from either team leaves a lot up in the air. As far as I can tell, G2B with their current roster has exactly one scrim on Payload (not on Swiftwater), and HDptE has never scrimmed Swiftwater without multiple ringers or subs. But, G2B does have some very close scrims with DAT, and a strong 4-1 win against IBKC under their belt--a team that HDptE has had trouble in the past with. However, just taking into account rosters and Swiftwater as a map, I think HDptE has an edge. Let me explain: Swiftwater is a map that heavily relies on your combo’s ability to work together and coordinate pushes. G2B’s strongest players are easily josh on Scout and Mhenlo on Sniper, and their combo seems to consist of people who are most certainly very good players but don’t seem to be on their strongest classes. In comparison, HDptE’s combo consists of players that might have less high-level experience than Nickk or Nerdaloid, but who are all on their strongest classes and who have plenty of experience playing together already. However, all of this assumes that G2B’s roster does not change before Monday. If it does, then this could be a very different and harder to predict matchup.

I think the safe bet here is to say that G2B’s extremely solid individual player skill level combined with a lot of high-level experience and good showings against some teams will give them a close victory over HDptE.

Prediction: 2-1 G2B
Gamechangers: zbra, Luigi, Micahlele (HDptE) Nerdaloid, PsychoPsyduck, josh, kezia (G2B)


Roster Spreadsheet
Week 2 Matches
Main Division League Table

If you have any complaints/feedback about the article, contact me here: Steam