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Advanced Week 2 Predictions


   perenne   - 9/14/2018


Welcome back to the RGL-HL Advanced Prediction Articles! After an exciting week 1, the next map is pl_swiftwater_final1. Payload is a gamemode where having coordination can decide the game, and having the better DM doesn't always decide the winner. Combo classes like the Demoman and Heavy will really have to step forward to give their team an advantage, especially in advanced where many of the teams and matches are so close in skill. But first, let's review Week One's matches.

Week One Review

HoE > Pretzels (4-2)
33gal. > egfug (4-1)
Flow > BC (4-0)
BM=BAE > S9 (4-0)

Heals On Everyone vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty (HoE wins 4-2)
As expected, Heals on Everyone picked up the win, but did so by only dropping 2 rounds. Not much is to be said about this match, but Lenny (HoE Sniper) had an impressive 550 DPM and top-fragged the server with 28 for the first half. s1ke (Demoman) also stepped in for Heals, getting 500 DPM in both halves. Although Gong (Demoman) did a lot of work for Pretzels, it wasn't enough to pick up a win. Both teams played very well, though. Congrats to HoE on the win!
MVP: Lenny

Black Trash Bags vs Egfug (33gal. wins 4-1)
With Egfug picking up players last minute, they were at a disadvantage with many new players. This lack of coordination (along with having a medic who was unable to comm) spelled disaster for egfug, as Ipaka (33gal. Demoman) completely demolished, getting 840 DPM in the first half, and finishing with over 700 throughout the game. Pellovley (egfug Demoman), despite being on the shield instead of stickies, managed to counter this, getting 700 DPM as well for his team. However, this DPM wasn't used effectively by egfug, especially when FunnyBunny (33gal. Medic) had zero deaths in the first half, which meant he was constantly healing and getting better ubers than KTqt (Medic), as he was unable to comm. Black Trash Bags pick up a fairly dominant win.
MVP: Ipaka

Breakfast Club HL vs the Flow (Flow win 4-0)
Incorrectly predicted, the Flow had a very successful first week, beating BC in a very strong fashion. Strong performances from Zanda (Sniper) and wxy (Demoman) gave the Flow so many kills and a lot of damage to work with. Bark (Soldier) also held the flank down very well, and got 5 Medic kills throughout the 4 quick rounds. Despite many doubting the Flow, they did answer back with a strong win.
MVP: Zanda

BM=BAE vs Seductive 9 (BM=BAE wins 4-0)
Seductive 9 looked very strong going into this match, but BM=BAE were able to get 4 rounds fairly quickly (although the logs don't show S9's medic, he was indeed there). BM=BAE ran fulltime kritz, and this worked out extremely well in their favor. While some rounds were close, and nearly went to 7 minutes, strong performances by BM (Demoman) and Rebel (Scout) allowed BM=BAE to get a win fairly easily.

Schedule for Week 2: Swiftwater

Breakfast Club HL (0-1) vs Heals On Everyone (1-0)
Egfug (0-1) vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty (0-1)
the Flow (1-0) < BM=BAE (1-0)
Seductive 9 (0-1) < Black Trash Bags (1-0)

Match Of The Week: Seductive 9 vs Black Trash Bags

S9: Crab_f / Durr / TomServo / Teats / Wax / Mothership / Honesty / Shotaway / Lunean
33gal: Velt / Doombringer / Plurl / Ipaka / Bonko / Cloud / FunnyBunny / Aeon / Jebus

Predicted Winner: Black Trash Bags
Predicted Score: 2-1

Both of these teams are very similar in skill, which is why it’s Match Of The Week. Individual performances will definitely decide this match, as both teams are really going to rely on key players to give any sort of advantage over the other. Wax (Heavy) is new to his role in the Seductive 9 combo, and his inexperience to Heavy as a class will be tested this week. Teats (Demoman) is known for his aggression, but Black Trash Bags has a lot of ways to stop pushes completely. Plurl (Pyro) is very successful in his ability to deny ubers, and in choke-pushes like on Swiftwater second, he and Bonko (Heavy) could stop S9 right in their tracks. On the flank, Durr (Soldier) and Crab_F (Scout) are both very strong players for S9 that could give them an advantage. However, VeLT (Scout) and DOOMBRINGER_ (Soldier) offer the same amount of DM and pressure. While both flanks are very close, Ipaka (Demoman) and Bonko should be able to hold back S9’s pushes, while having successful pushes of their own. It will be a very close game with both team’s being neck and neck, but 33gal should be able to get their second win.

Important players to watch for: Ipaka, Bonko (33gal. ); Crab_F, Durr (S9)

The Flow vs BM=BAE

Flow: Nucket / Bark / Pyrrrhus / Wxy / Blue99 / Kumora / Zoomxze / Zanda / Goldin
BM=BAE: Rebel / Khil / Pnut / BM / Gert / Sigafoo / Tacos / Markers / Fallen

Predicted Winner: BM=BAE
Predicted Score: 2-1

Flushed with their week 1 success, the Flow now attempt to tackle a different beast: a payload match vs BM=BAE. Blue99 (Heavy) has been praised by his maincalling ability from both teammates and other players alike. Wxy (Demoman) also works well with Blue, and his ability to deal tons of damage will definitely give the Flow a lot of room to work with. However, BM (Demoman) is also a very strong Demoman with DM capabilities, who can give BM=BAE a lot of damage for them to work off. Zanda (Sniper) can do well in this match and provide good picks for the Flow, but against a skilled player like Markers (Sniper), this will be very difficult. Sigafoo (Engineer), the legendary engineer main, also is very skilled with keeping a sentry gun up and having good DM skills as well. The flanks on both teams look very strong, but Bark (Soldier) has been very dominant on the flank for the Flow. However, BM=BAE is a very solid unit, with all of their players making little mistakes and playing well.While the Flow can win a round off their talented players and great calls, BM=BAE looks better and can get away with a win.

Important players to watch for: BM, Markers (BAE); Blue99, Zanda (Flow)

Egfug vs Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty

Pretzels: RandomCookie / Fiire / PyroSquirrel / Gong / Octa / Dog / Dreadnought / S4rr / Vizie
Egfug: AngryOfficer / vipa / ? / Pellovley / Vanilla Love / Shredder / KTQT / Reika / Manbug

Predicted Winner: Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty
Predicted Score: 2-1

After both of these teams losing week one, they are surely thirsty for their first win. However, it seems pretty clear that one team is more thirsty than the other -- Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty. In week one, Pretzels had an impressive performance against HoE, due to Gong (Demoman) and S4rr (Sniper) putting up some impressive stat lines. They ended up taking two rounds, which shows that they are a strong DM team that can stand up to the strongest in the division. However, Egfug has also picked up Vipa (Soldier) and Pellovely (Demoman), which will surely move their team in the right direction with DM and decision making. With the help of Reika (Sniper), who has performed very well for the team thus far, this match can easily be swayed in Egfug's favor. While the upset is very possible, it still seems more likely that Pretzels will be able to come out on top for this one and go 1-1.

Important players to watch for: RandomCookie, S4rr (Pretzels); Vanilla Love, AngryOfficer (egfug)

Breakfast Club HL vs Heals On Everyone

BC: Ninjax / Ether / Charis / Jay / Witness / Pissy / Crate / Rkr / Donovin
HoE: Ebsikl / Yuki / T.K / Lizar / Lizard / Mono / Rebite / Lenny / Cooldog

Predicted Winner: Heals On Everyone
Predicted Score: 2-0

Heals On Everyone continues to look extremely strong after a first week win over Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty, and it’s looking like their performance wont stop at all. Lizard (Heavy) and Lizar (Demoman) are both very successful when it comes to payload, especially when backed by T.K. (Pyro), a player who is very successful when it comes to spychecking and denying uber pushes. Lenny (Sniper) continues to perform well, which gives HoE a huge advantage to their already strong combo. Meanwhile, Breakfast Club is shaken after a crushing loss to the Flow (which was incorrectly predicted, as pointed out). Witness (Heavy), is one of the few players on his team with numerous highlander seasons. Luckily, one other member of his combo does, in Crate (Medic). Breakfast Club needs to rely on Witness to micromanage many of their players, considering 6s doesn’t have payload in the rotation. The high-level experience for many of Breakfast Club’s players won’t give them any sort of advantage. Heals is already a very strong team, but their highlander experience will come in handy against players who are unfamiliar with the gamemode. Despite hastily switching their medic right before the start of the season, HoE still looks like they have a stronger combo, and should be able to win.

Important players to watch for: Lenny, Lizard (HoE); Witness, Crate (BC)

Week 1 Matches
Advanced Division League Table

Article Written by Cloud and Tacos